Let us try anyway.
1. SP500 is making a mid/long term price extreme, i.e. > 1SD on 1-3 months time scale. Ideally it should be a new all time high.
2. A birth of the counter-trend should be watched out if a consecutive short term 1hour, 1day counter-trend sparks (>1SD) were observed.
3. The counter trend hunting starts using the minimal leverage ( 1ES contract in our case) and a stop loss at or slightly above the assumed pivot point.
4. Repeat if failed.
(Rule #3 has to be formulated using probabilities and the amount of seed money.)
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Rule#1 . I am not sure if it's a check. However PTJ is looking to counter the trend which is shown by the yellow arrow.
Rule #2. Check.
The yellow arrows show to consecutive countertrend moves of about 1SD.
Rule #3. Tonight or tomorrow PTJ has to short 1ES contract with a stop loss around $2105.25 . The position has to be closed when a new short term low is reached and reopened again when the price will bounce back.
4/22/16 There was no chance today to short the market.
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